BB SECTIONALS: Uncle Mike’s predictions for the postseason

It is that time again. The 100th rendition of the boys basketball state tournament will begin this coming week at 64 sectional sites. We have had a couple of days to digest the draw, so here is Uncle Mike’s analysis of the games and predicted sectional winners – plus those of Managing Editor E. Shawn Aylsworth, aka Cousin Ed, the creature whom Uncle Mike claims to know 20 times more about basketball than …

SECTIONAL 1 @ East Chicago Central

Uncle Mike: Makes no difference how the draw came out in this one. Munster is the superior team in the field. MUNSTER

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Not so fast, you ancient curmudgeon. The host Cardinals, three years removed from a 4A state title against Eric Gordon-led North Central (Indianapolis), only lost by eight to Munster back in early December. And East Chicago has played twice as hard a schedule. But Munster definitely has an easier draw. So what. EAST CHICAGO CENTRAL

Uncle Mike: Merrillville and Valparaiso drew into opposite brackets. Neither should have much difficulty reaching the final. They split close decisions during the season, each team winning on its home floor. I will take Valparaiso in a squeaker on the neutral floor at Michigan City. VALPARAISO

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: That 16-point, season-ending home loss to Michigan City by Valpo certainly raises eyebrows, enough to pick the Pirates. YARRRRRRRRR! MERRILLVILLE

Uncle Mike: Nothing ever turns out like it supposed to in a South Bend sectional. In this case, however, South Bend Riley – the favorite on paper – also drew the bye. I think that is enough to get them through. SOUTH BEND RILEY

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: I still can’t shake the visual of the ugliest postseason game I’ve ever seen a few years back when Penn lost the semistate at Kokomo to a Muncie Central team one year removed from being good – a vision that caused permanent retinal damage. Karma alone forces me to take the host Wildcats. SOUTH BEND RILEY

Uncle Mike: This is the same scenario as Sectional 3. Warsaw is the favorite and drew the bye. The big game here is the semifinal showdown with Concord. Warsaw won the regular season bout by six. Concord has been a little shaky late in the year, so I will take the Tigers. WARSAW

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: That Warsaw win was at Concord, and the Tigers have beaten all other sectional foes by double digits. WARSAW

Uncle Mike: There is nobody here that should stop Carroll (Fort Wayne). The style of play is a little worrisome for the Chargers, but I think they make it through. CARROLL

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Hold a sec, foo. Host Fort Wayne Northrop won by four at Carroll in December, played a tougher schedule, and quite possibly might be miffed at the likelihood the girls team will have its 57-game winning streak obliterated next weekend IN FORT WAYNE by Ben Davis. We’ll find out in Friday’s opener who’s boss. FORT WAYNE NORTHROP

Uncle Mike: The entire tournament is wrapped up in the first-round game between Homestead and Fort Wayne South. Homestead has only lost twice, but one of them was to South by three on the Archers’ floor. This is a neutral site, and I don’t think it will put the Spartans over the top. I will take South. FORT WAYNE SOUTH 

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Homestead has lost three of its last four. That’s no way to enter the postseason! Then again, South has lost three of its last five, but the Archers can rise to the occasion by virtue of a win over two-time defending 2A champ Fort Wayne Luers in December. Now where’s that coin … FORT WAYNE SOUTH

Uncle Mike: Everything says Lafayette Jefferson (the Bronchos have been hot, they have the bye). Kokomo has a first-round toughie versus Logansport. I don’t care. I will still take the host Wildkats. KOKOMO

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: WHAT?!?! Sure, the Bronchos were on a nine-game winning streak heading to the postseason, but they laid down in an 86-63 Hoosier Crossroads Conference championship chance at Hamilton Southeastern to end the season. There’s no way I’m taking Jeffkyl and Hyde, not after the insane roller coasterism of the last two seasons. Plus, Kokomo won at Jeff by three and beat the other three sectional opponents by double digits. KOKOMO

Uncle Mike: New Castle is the best team, and the Trojans are at home. NEW CASTLE

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: There are two other schools (Pendleton Heights and Muncie Central) that are within two Sagarin power ratings points of the Trojans, Sparky, with the former having defeated New Castle by nine at home just two weeks ago. Then again, the hosts are 17-3. NEW CASTLE

Uncle Mike: Hamilton Southeastern got a bye. The Royals beat both of the teams they might play, Zionsville by one and Noblesville by two. I do not think they beat either one a second time. Zionsville beat Noblesville when the Millers were short-handed. Meanwhile, Westfield should catch a Carmel team that has problems off the court. I see Westfield and Noblesville in the final, and the Millers moving on. NOBLESVILLE

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Without question, the state’s most difficult sectional with four teams among the Top 15 Sagarinwise (HSE No. 3, Carmel No. 4, Noblesville No. 14, Zionsville No. 15) – at least until all the bus shenanigans at Carmel stripped the squad of all its seniors but one and tarnished what should have been a celebration of top-shelf parity. I maintain that Zionsville has the most talent here, and the Eagles certainly have multiple sectional failures from recent seasons from which to atone. ZIONSVILLE

Uncle Mike: Did you ever think you would live to see a sectional that had both Jack Keefer- and Basil Mawbey-coached teams in it, and neither was favored? North Central (Indianapolis) is the best, and I think they will win it. But I have a sneaking suspicion that Indianapolis Broad Ripple is going to make noise in this one. NORTH CENTRAL

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: I chuckle every time I hear some Marion County coach talk about how much better North Central is than defending 4A state champ Bloomington South. Whatev. Still, this normally brutal sectional will be nothing more than a regional warm-up act for the Panthers, setting the stage for a monumental semistate date with the other Panthers – the unbeaten-in-46-games ones. NORTH CENTRAL

Uncle Mike: Franklin and Franklin Central are the only teams with a legitimate chance of stopping Center Grove. Franklin Central is too challenged offensively, and I can’t see the Trojans letting Franklin beat them twice. CENTER GROVE

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: CENTER GROVE

Uncle Mike: There is no sectional where the bye is more important. That is NOT because the field is so tough. It is because the entire field has been so totally inconsistent. There is not a team in this sectional you could reasonably expect to string together three strong performances in a row. Pike only has to put two together, and its first game versus Manual or Brownsburg is one it should clearly win. I will take the Red Devils over Ben Davis in the final. PIKE

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Wrong, Keebler. Wrong-o! Yes, Pike swept Ben Davis in their two meetings. But that was awhile ago, and the Giants have reeled off six straight wins to close out the season. Plus, the boys hafta be geeked over the impending second straight girls title that should occur about the same time they beat Pike for the sectional crown Saturday. BEN DAVIS

Uncle Mike: This should be an all-Terre Haute final. Under almost any circumstance, I would give the nod to the underdog. In this instance, however, I just do not think South is good enough to pull the upset. TERRE HAUTE NORTH

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Yes, this normally super-unpredictable field is way down this year, with only one of six teams having a winning record against 4A competition. That would be Terre Haute North, which drilled arch-rival Terre Haute South by 19 when they met in late January. Yikes. TERRE HAUTE NORTH

Uncle Mike: Bloomington South really caught a break in the draw. The two teams that could pull the upset, East Central and Columbus North, will have to face each other in the semis. The only chance for an upset was if South had to play them both. BLOOMINGTON SOUTH

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: The possibility of Bloomington South – nearly a 20-point power numbers favorite – blowing its chance to shut people up about the perceived deficiency to North Central prior to that circled semistate date March 20 is below zero. And yes, I know this is “Hoosier Hysteria” we’re talkin’ about. But South lost the opener here two years ago while scoring just 33 points, and ol’ J.R. will be reminding his Division I-laden charges about that constantly. BLOOMINGTON SOUTH

Uncle Mike: The final should be the “Un-Civil War, Part II.” I’ll take New Albany. NEW ALBANY

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Gimme back that coin. New Albany and Jeffersonville are separated by three points according to Mr. Sagarin, so that’s negligible. New Albany’s three-game winning streak over Jeff in this sectional since a double-overtime loss in 2006 – all by double figures – is not. NEW ALBANY 

Uncle Mike: If you have been waiting for an upset pick, here it is. This just sets up for Evansville Reitz. All the attention will be on the first-round game between Castle and Harrison. I think Harrison wins that one but has a letdown later. Reitz, meanwhile, has an easy road through the other bracket. EVANSVILLE REITZ

Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: I never, ever get this sectional right, meaning whatever follows the period just … doesn’t … matter. EVANSVILLE HARRISON

CLASS 3A
(NOTE: I have already set the appointment because anyone who tries to pick this class should have their head examined.)
SECTIONAL 17 @ Gary Roosevelt
Uncle Mike: It isn’t like the old days in Gary when being the favorite almost guaranteed you lost. Wallace is the best, and I think it will win. GARY WALLACE
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Based on the power ratings, draw, and field, John Harrell’s website tells us that Wallace is a 66.8 percent favorite over Roosevelt (31.8). That’s plenty for me. GARY WALLACE

SECTIONAL 18 @ Knox
Uncle Mike: I am guessing Rensselaer pulls at least one upset by downing Andrean in the second round. I don’t think they can pull two of them. I will take Griffith. GRIFFITH
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Andrean plays the toughest schedule here and rates a two-point Sagarin fave over Griffith. I’ll stick with the numbers. ANDREAN

SECTIONAL 19 @ Plymouth
Uncle Mike: Plymouth isn’t great, but the Pilgrims are good enough to conquer this field. The only challenge would be from Glenn, but their schedules just do not compare. PLYMOUTH
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Huh? Culver Academies already won at Plymouth by five just two weeks ago, and the Eagles are nearly 10-point favorites over Glenn. Show me the money. CULVER ACADEMIES

SECTONAL 20 @ Frankfort
Uncle Mike: How is this for scientific? The two best teams are Western and West Lafayette, due to meet in the semifinals. History says West Lafayette only wins the title in years ending with nine (1989, 1999, 2009). Therefore, go with Western. WESTERN
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Mike, a train leaves Kansas City heading west at 35 miles an hour … This field is not as strong as it usually is, opening the door for an upset. Western is three points better than the rest of the field in Sagarin’s view, but I once was told by some old geezer that the only true color for a devil is red, nines be damned! WEST LAFAYETTE

SECTIONAL 21 @ Columbia City
Uncle Mike: The draw pits the two best teams, Columbia City and Wawasee, against each other in a semifinal. Wawasee can score in bunches. The Warriors also let other teams score in bushels. Meanwhile, Columbia City lives on defense. I will go with that. COLUMBIA CITY
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: The hosts are 5-1 vs. Class 3A competition and won by eight at Wawasee right before Christmas. Those two should meet in the deciding semifinal, so I’ll stick with the proven commodity at home that’s a 61.5 percent probability. COLUMBIA CITY

SECTIONAL 22 @ Norwell
Uncle Mike: Here is the first example of insanity resulting from trying to pick this class. The draw came out even. Everything points to a Peru versus Fort Wayne Elmhurst final. Raw talent might go narrowly to Elmhurst. Normally, strength of schedule would go that way, but I am not sure it does in this case. All that being said, Peru is the best-coached team I have seen all year, and I think the Tigers are on a mission for at least a regional title. All hail the Circus City. PERU
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Peru’s only loss came in game 2 by two on the road at 4A Logansport – everything else has been smooth sailing since with nobody scoring more than 53 on the Tigers all season. I like the circus! PERU

SECTIONAL 23 @ Harding
Uncle Mike: I see the white coats coming. This is a toss-up. I am going to take Harding because I am a coward, but the winner of the New Haven versus Fort Wayne Dwenger game will make noise. New Haven just beat Harding in overtime recently at Harding. HARDING
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Dwenger is the favorite by one of Uncle Mike’s considerable nose hairs here (37.8 to 37.3 percent), and Harding thumped the Saints by 11 on the road. The home-court advantage and recent tournament success bodes well for the Hawks. HARDING

SECTIONAL 24 @ Muncie South
Uncle Mike: I do not care what the draw is or who is in the field. I am taking Mississinewa, and that is entirely a pick with my heart. The Indians deserve a championship with everything they have been through. MISSISSINEWA
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Yes, I like the Indians, too. Especially at 19-1. OLE MISS

SECTIONAL 25 @ Danville
Uncle Mike: It isn’t the sectional that is hard here. It will be the regional. DANVILLE
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Danville is the second-biggest sectional favorite in the state, trailing only 1A top-ranked Bowman Academy (84.4) at 80.2 percent. Ain’t no upsets happenin’ here, boss. DANVILLE

SECTIONAL 26 @ Beech Grove
Uncle Mike: The draw leads to a Roncalli versus Indianapolis Howe Academy final. Everything says Howe, and the Hornets are more talented. But I don’t think Roncalli will back down, and frankly I think the Rebels are better coached. RONCALLI
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: All six schools have a winning record, and nobody really stands out. Still, I’ll hang with Howe. INDIANAPOLIS HOWE ACADEMY

SECTIONAL 27 @ Mt. Vernon (Fortville)
Uncle Mike: Mt. Vernon will win it, but the Marauders will struggle in Game 1. MT. VERNON (FORTVILLE)
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Gramps wasn’t kidding about that regional. MT. VERNON (FORTVILLE)

SECTIONAL 28 @ Greensburg
Uncle Mike: My head is spinning. If the Pirates are full strength, I will take Greensburg. That is the second sign of insanity, because nobody picks against Batesville at tourney time. GREENSBURG
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: YARRRRRRRRRRRR! A pair of recent road losses will focus the 17-2 hosts. Hopefully. GREENSBURG

SECTIONAL 29 @ Owen Valley
Uncle Mike: The draw worked out very well for Sullivan, and the Golden Arrows are the best team going in. SULLIVAN
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: The 20-2 alma mater of our long-ago “Indiana Sports’ Greatest Moments” voice Jerry Baker is too good of a feel-good story not to advance here. SULLIVAN

SECTIONAL 30 @ Corydon
Uncle Mike: These Southern Indiana sectionals are always a toss-up because they are civil wars. I think the difference in this one is probably the home-court advantage. I will take Corydon. CORYDON
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: Corydon rolled Crawford County, the only other team in this sectional with a winning record, by 30 ON THE ROAD. Spankity, spankity, spankity! CORYDON

SECTIONAL 31 @ Washington
Uncle Mike: Come on. This is at the Hatchet House, and Washington got beat in the regional last year. You tell me what the chances are of them letting a chance for revenge slip away.
WASHINGTON
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: What he said. WASHINGTON

SECTIONAL 32 @ Boonville
Uncle Mike: This one is almost impossible to handicap. Defending 3A state champion Princeton is the most-talented team, but the Tigers are an implosion waiting to happen. They also will have to play three very difficult games. I think they get past Boonville in the semis because the Pioneers are not as comfortable on the big stage. I see the meltdown coming versus Evansville Memorial in the championship tilt. EVANSVILLE MEMORIAL
Not-far-enough-removed Cousin Ed: I really wanna see that Friday semifinal between the host Pioneers and Princeton! But it looks like me and the old **** will be making a road trip to Fort Wayne this weekend, so I can only be there in spirit to root for the school where my pops was All-Regional back in 1948. BOONVILLE