HoosierAuthority.com’s Brandon Jones and Colin Altevogt recently carried on a conversation on the girls track & field state finals via e-mail – here is an edited of version of what they discussed …
Jones:
I think that it is fairly obvious who the three contending teams for the title are: Lawrence North, North Central (Indianapolis), and Warren Central. Looking at the heat sheets, this one could come down to the relays. All three teams have three relays qualified, and all are seeded pretty closely together in all three.
I think it is pretty neat to see how all three teams possess different strengths outside of the relays, and that all will get their points from different places except the shot put and hurdle races. Warren will grab big points in the sprints, North Central in the hurdles and jumps, and Lawrence North in the hurdles and throws.
I remember us sitting in the press box at the girls Marion County Meet and talking about how that meet was the closest thing to state meet points. Remembering correctly, Lawrence North was a distant third in the team standings that night. The more and more I look at some of the seedings, the more I talk myself into thinking that the Wildcats can reverse those standings and pull the upset.
They have been bridesmaids in all of the big meets this season and have yet to win a big one. They were third at the Metropolitan Interscholastic Conference Meet, third at Marion County, and runners-up at both the sectional and the regional.
Colin:
Going through my predictions, I really didn’t give Lawrence North the benefit of the doubt very often. The ’Cats were real close – I had them only five points back of North Central, with Warren quite a ways behind those two. They can only score so many points with a sprinter, a hurdler, a thrower, and the relays.
That being said, LN doesn’t have the greatest track record (no pun intended) at big meets.
I think North Central is easily the favorite, and I’m picking the Panthers. Is that who you’re going with also? What big events do you think will separate these two?
Jones:
When I went 1-9 in every event and then added it up, I honestly have Lawrence North winning the title. Funny as it sounds, I had LN at 51, NC at 46, and Warren at 45.
Looking at where the points are going to come from, I see Weatherford and Edwards as a push in the short hurdles and give Weatherford the edge in the 300s. Johnson is superior to Buckley in the shot and will also place top three (at worst) in the discus. All three relays are extremely close and could go either way. Tolliver’s points for NC in the long jump even out with Johnson’s discus points.
I look at Ahlivia Spencer of LN in the 400, and she is in Lane 1 of the middle heat. I think she will score 4-5 points there, which could be the difference.
Colin:
I think Lawrence North has the most potential points. Conversely, Warren Central has the most certain points. We know McGrone is getting her 20, and the relays should score mid-range so long as the other girls can keep her in the mix.
In my mind, North Central is a happy medium. Plus, I think the Panthers have the best relays of all three. It would just be fitting to win the state meet on that.
What team has the best chance to medal in the 4×8, do you think? If North Central scores some points there and gets two hurdlers into the finals, the other two could have trouble catching up, especially with Warren not being able to count on 18 points in the 100.
Lawrence North’s points here, as is the case with their boys, are a lot more iffy. We can sit here and speculate up until Friday just for entertainment. Imagine being a coach on one of these teams.
Here’s another question to ponder: If Ebony Wright doesn’t get hurt at the regional, does Warren have this bad boy locked up already?
Jones:
Of the three, I like North Central’s chances of medaling in the 4×800 the best. I don’t think it will be a big difference-maker in the meet because I cannot see them placing higher than seventh, to be honest. I think that Edwards is a certainty in the finals of the short hurdles, as is Weatherford of Lawrence North.
Keep in mind how tough it is to pull off the long jump/short-hurdle double for some athletes. Shifting your focus on the big stage could be an issue for the North Central athletes, while Weatherford will not have to worry about that.
I have North Central placing eighth in the 4×800, and Lawrence North and Warren on the outside looking in (though I do think Warren has a shot to win the first heat). Then I have Edwards placing fifth in the 100-meter hurdles and Weatherford placing seventh. Douglas of Warren could score a couple, but I do not have her making the finals.
I don’t think that the first two events will have any of the three contenders panicking as the margin will be small at that point.
Yeah, I think that Wright’s injury at the regional hurts Warren badly. I think she is going to be OK for this weekend, but she is leaving 15-16 points on the table for the defending champs. I think they could approach 60 points if she were healthy. Her injury is still a huge story line because the drop-off to WC’s No. 5 sprinter in the 4×100/4×400 is rather large.
Colin:
I think we’re both in agreement that if Warren is to win, the Warriors will do it by the others faltering. North Central and Lawrence North are somewhat in control of their own destiny.
I don’t any of the three scoring in the 4×8, but I do have Edwards third in the high hurdles. Say North Central picks up seventh in the relay and Edwards gets third in the hurdles – suddenly, they could be 10 up after two events.
Speaking of the 4×8, we should both agree that Westfield will win. Is Chesterton’s state record in jeopardy? Obviously, the Shamrocks’ times haven’t been near it, but I think we could see 9:01 or 9:02.
Jones:
Yeah, Warren is maxed out. You can view that in a good way or bad way, I guess. Douglas is their only question mark outside of Wright. She could grab a few in both hurdle races but, outside of that, you know what you are getting with Warren: 20 from McGrone, 12-14 from Flowers, and then the two short relays (if healthy) could grab the Warriors as many as 15 but probably closer to a dozen.
Yeah, Edwards grabbing third would be huge for North Central. She has posted the state’s fifth-best time this season, but I like girls like Ross, Snapp, Bailey, and Sanders a bit better because they are not pulling double duty, and most of them have been there before (outside of Snapp).
I am on the fence as to how fast Westfield will run in the 4×800. It sounds kind of silly to say that they will just run fast enough to win, since it is the state finals. I think that they could run a bit sub-par and still get the 10 points. I am not sure who their four are (you can probably shed some light), but their girls doubling back in the 16 and 8 may want to conserve a little energy.
I may be way off here, but the weather on Friday will be unlike any that these athletes have seen thus far. Three o’clock is the hottest part of the day, and I remember seeing highs in the 80s for Friday. I guess we will see. I will say that Westfield runs in the 9:08-9:10 range.
Colin:
Westfield is stacked with their top four runners. They could win without them, which leads me to believe they want to run as fast as possible. The ’Rocks do have girls doubling back in all three distance races, but the year Chesterton set the record they had two girls finish All-State in the 1600.
Not quit sure if you remember from last year, but Bain and I were sitting in the booth before the meet sweating like Patrick Ewing in warm-ups. Westfield still ran 9:13 without all their girls. I say they just miss the record, going about 9:05. That’d be second-best ever.
Have you noticed the recent trend of doubling back in the 1600 after the 4×8? It started in the girls and has even recently spread to the boys. How is that even possible? There aren’t as many girls this year trying it, but at least three potential medalists in the 1600 will not have fresh legs.
Jones:
That is a pretty safe bet. I think that outside of McGrone, Westfield is the meet’s biggest lock as far as event state titles go. You could make a case for Johnson in the shot put or Young in the long jump as well, but Westfield is just so loaded.
You know more about the girls scene than I do, but I remember our phone conversation last Thursday regarding Lake Central’s girls. Could they be a sleeper and be holding out for something special? Let’s not forget that they beat Westfield at last year’s NTN qualifier and will probably be the favorite next fall.
Looking at the six names they have listed on their relay, they all look like familiar names from XC. Only Payonk is running an individual event later in the meet. I think they will push Westfield early and then run out of steam. That could be enough to push Westfield to the record or at least the brink of the record.
Yeah, I have a bit of a homer scenario when it comes to the 4×8/1600 double. Turner did it his junior year at WC and went 1:53 on the anchor, then came back and ran 4:08 and change in the classic stretch battle with Weatherford. It definitely takes a special kind of athlete to do so, and only a handful of girls in the state are tough enough to do it and be contenders in the 1600.
The lactic acid that has accumulated in the legs after a tough 800-meter leg has to affect laps 3-4 of the 1600. Their only hope to win the thing is a slow early pace.
Colin:
Don’t you forget that I picked Lake Central to upset Westfield at the state finals in cross country and ended up looking like an ***** in the process. I don’t think the Indians have a chance here, though. Westfield was nine seconds faster at the regional and always peaks just right for the state meet.
It could be close with a bunch of teams early on, and usually is, since the strongest teams keep their fire on the third and fourth legs.
As for the 4×8/1600 double, I asked the queen of it (Sarah Kehe of Chesterton) how she did it. Her response?
“I don’t know. I didn’t really think about it.”
It does take a certain kind of athlete. When I was in high school, we used to say that those were the guys that “didn’t care” – you’d come to the line an hour after running an all-out 800 and think “I don’t care” and just go for it. Thankfully, I never had to do it or else I might not be typing this e-mail to you.
The 1600, at least on paper, looks interesting. Do either Blanchard or Masterson have what it takes to dethrone the queen?
Jones:
Yeah, not a bad pick, just a week early. It was a closer meet than many others had thought, that is for sure. Not that I have given it more thought, but teams pushing Westfield early on could put that record in jeopardy. I will settle on saying that there is a 30 percent chance that Westfield breaks the record in the 4×800.
It takes a rare athlete to pull that double, that is for certain. Not to be stereotypical, but there are usually fewer girls that have the mental toughness to pull it off. It all starts with coaching. It is a mindset more than anything.
That is why you see that the cross country powerhouses year in and year out are also the schools with girls attempting the double. Perhaps those that run higher-mileage programs (i.e. Columbus North, which I am sure you can speak on) have an edge both physically and mentally when it comes to attempting that sort of self-destructive behavior.
Kehe pulled the 4×8/16/8/4×4 quadruple and medaled in all four, correct? That is freaking insane! I pulled the double (as an average runner) in a couple of duals during my time at WC, but when the chips were down, fresh legs win out in a school of 4,000 students. You can spread your talent a little more evenly at a large school, which is surprising with Westfield.
You say they are going for it, but they still only get 10 points, whether they run 9:00 or 9:20. You would think that they might spread things out to maximize points through fresh legs. The ’Rocks are a top five team for sure, and if something crazy happens they could leave with a runner-up trophy.
I think that Banfich is most vulnerable in the 1600, if I had to pick one. I think that Blanchard has the best shot at her, so we will see. Chelsea has been waiting a long time for this one, and we all remember how she was moving late in that mile at Franklin Central in the middle of April.
I like Banfich in the 4:51-4:52 range followed by Blanchard, Masterson, Whaley, and Bingham. In a related note, what about Molly Hirt of Bloomington North? She threw down some amazing times indoors (5:05/10:55), but has not really dropped anything outdoors.
Lack of competition? Too much mileage? Injury?
Colin:
In all honesty, I don’t see any way Westfield ends up finishing second. Speaking as someone who was once on a team that finished fifth overall, it’s not a big deal at all. If you win or get second, that’s something – third through 147th is all the same.
Why worry about team points when you’re talking about a record that could stand for a very, very long time?
If any, Blanchard has a shot at Alex in the mile. Remember Flashes Indy? She sat in the pack until 300 to go and came out of nowhere. Had she been further up in the field before starting her kick, she might have taken the thing. I still think Banfich has enough to run away from her, but I think Blanchard and coach Raber realize that her better shot is in the 1600. Masterson is tough as well, but I don’t really think she has a shot (and yes, I hope someone prints that out and gives it to her).
As for Hirt, I’m not really sure what’s happened this outdoor season. I do remember in cross country, after I heard that Northridge had finished ninth, I was certain that we (Columbus North) were in the top five. Wrong. Bloomington North finished on the last podium spot after we had beaten them all year.
Moral of the story? The Cougars know how to peak.
Hirt won’t win and will be really hard-pressed to break up that top three, but she’ll ascend the podium at least halfway.
If Banfich is a guarantee in the deuce and heavy favorite in the 1600, who are the other locks? What records could fall?
Jones:
Yeah, I have Westfield fifth with 30 points. You are right when it comes to team points, though. I guess a state record is more important that a top five team finish. I see where you are coming from.
Now, if they had a shot to take home a trophy, it could be a different story …
I agree on the Blanchard pick. Masterson is the most mentally tough girl runner that I have seen in a long time. She always looks to have that ****** instinct and is always pushing for her best. I remember talking to her dad before the Marion County Meet and he said that she came to him and told him that she wanted to drop something special in both the 1600 and 3200 that night.
Most girls might give the classic “I just wanted to win” or “I just wanted to run my best” quote, but not her. I think that she is the next-best bet after Banfich and Blanchard.
I asked the question about Hirt because she has seemed to disappear after a quick start to the season. She may just be biding her time, so as fans of the sport let’s hope so because she could be another name to throw in the mix.
The other “locks” as I see them? Erynn Young of Muncie Central in the long jump. She always jumps just far enough to win, plus has history on her side. Tolliver could make things interesting, but I like Young once again.
I like Felicia Johnson in the shot, but the gap has narrowed a bit. Meghan Kessler of Crown Point and Kyla Buckley of North Central are right there. Johnson’s 49-foot toss in April is three feet better than the next best, but she has yet to throw over 47 since. If she struggles early and the others put in a good first toss, who knows?
I thought the same thing about Tra Wilson of Lawrence North last week at the regional, however, and we all know how that turned out.
As far as records are concerned, I think that McGrone’s legacy will come in this meet. She will have a busy day, and that could take its toll on her (six races). I think that the close nature of the meet may have McGrone just run fast enough to win the 200 and save something special for the 4×400.
The 100-meter record IS going down – we all thought this last year and were disappointed, but 2008 is the year for that record to be broken.
By the way, take a look at the entrants for the 100-meter dash at next month’s Olympic Trials.
Back to Johnson, the state meet record of 49”-07.00” is in jeopardy, and she will come close but just short of that mark.
I think that Chelsea Ross of Fort Wayne Wayne will break the :13.95 100-hurdle mark, while Klump will narrowly miss the 800-meter mark.
Colin:
To build on that, Hannah Farley of Park Tudor is a lock in the 400. In fact, with the exception of the 1600, all open events on the track are a lock as competitors from the 100 to the 3200 have won a combined nine state titles!
This could be one of the more boring state meets. I think Young in the long jump and Johnson in the shot are locks as well. Deloney in the disc is very close, but I wouldn’t bet the shoes I wear to the meet that she wins. (That’s my gauge on whether the person is a lock – if I’d risk walking barefoot back to my car.)
Records in the 100, 800, and shot put are toast.
We’ve been discussing this for two hours, so here’s the last question. What big-time sports equivalent (think professional or international athletics here) would there be to Park Tudor winning the 4×400 – in my mind, the premiere event in track & field – at the state finals?
Jones:
Yeah, Farley slipped my mind. She is a lock in the 400. Good call. I guess it depends on your definition of the word “boring.” Maybe not ultra-competitive at times, but seeing the record books re-written is pure entertainment for me. You are calling for three state records out of the 16 events contested, so that is hardly boring.
Park Tudor winning the 4×400 meter relay would be one for the ages. I remember tossing this question around during the Marion County webcast, but who would have thought the Panthers would be the top seed weeks later?
Though I am a big sports guy, it is tough to draw a parallel to Park Tudor winning the 4×400 meter relay on Friday. You could throw around the 1985 Villanova reference or, dare I say, Appalachian State’s football upset of Michigan this past fall. Park Tudor is the little guy in all of this, but let’s keep in mind that it is a private school. That dampens the accomplishment a bit, but I am sure that the great crop of athletes they have are not going there because they are great athletes.
I was talking to Marty Hill the other day at a meet – he told me that Park Tudor denied Robert Smitson back in the day, and we all know what he went on to do on the track and academically.
Colin:
At first, I was going to liken it to LeBron James leading the Cavaliers to the NBA title. But Cleveland has most of the same advantages and disadvantages as do most of the other NBA teams – they just play in a smaller market. If Park Tudor is to win the 4×4, and I **** to bring it up too much and jinx them, it would be like the world’s best soccer player growing up in Toronto and leading the Canadians (a country known for hockey and not soccer) to the World Cup title.
Or maybe I’ve just been playing too much FIFA soccer on PlayStation since school got out.
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